On the morning of November 4^th, 2021, the 2021 China Import Development Report was officially released. The Report was jointly released by BNU Business School and China Institute of Education and Social Development at Beijing Normal University. Wei Hao, Professor at BNUBS and Director of the National Import Research Center, is the chief editor of the Report.   

 

The Report has attracted wide attention from various media.  Economic Information Daily, China Economic Times, International Business Daily, China Trade News, China Foreign Trade, China's Foreign Trade  and other papers have all published relevant articles about the content of the Report, dozens of articles in total. Chief Editor Wei Hao was interviewed by PhoenixTV, with 2.7 million views on the apps of Xinhua News Agency, Xinhua Finance and other official media. Many mainstream central websites such as People's Daily Online, Guangming.com, Xinhuanet, the official website of China International Import Expo, China Economic Net, China Social Science Net, China Belt and One Road Network, and China Business News have also reprinted the full text or core views of the Report.

 

The China Import Development Report  is the first comprehensive report on import trade issued by the country. It serves the major national strategy of actively expanding import and serves the major event of the China International Import Expo. Since 2018, the Report has been released for four consecutive years and has become a brand report.     

 

The 2021 China Import Development Report  contains about 250,000 words. The Report uses a large amount of micro-data to conduct statistical analysis on China's import of key products and imports from key regions. It consists of six parts: General Report, Theoretical Report, Thematic Report, Local Report, Epidemic Report, and Prospect Report. Specifically, it mainly includes (1) A theoretical analysis of the relationship between actively expanding import and constructing new development pattern; (2) A comprehensive review of China's overall import policies and their changes, industrial import policies, regional import policies, import platforms and other situations; (3) A statistical analysis of China's key import products and key import regions; (4) An analysis of the import trade development experience and mode of Shenzhen, Suzhou and Chengdu in central and western China; (5)A systematical analysis of the impact of the epidemic on China's import development; (6) China's import Outlook.

 

Introduction of key viewpoints

Viewpoint 1: Import Trade will Play a More Prominent Role in the New Development Paradigm

Viewpoint 2: China Contributed 27.7% to Global Import Growth

Viewpoint 3: China is the Largest Export Market for 40 Countries (Regions)

Viewpoint: Since the Outbreak of the Pandemic, China's Imports of Goods Have Been the First to Resume Growth.

Viewpoint 5: China Has Made Greater Contribution to the Exports of the 64 Countries Along the Belt and Road Through Its Import  

Viewpoint 6: Central and Eastern Europe Countries Has Played a More Important Role in China's Import Market

Viewpoint 7: The Share of RCEP Countries in China's Total Imports Has Increased to 37.72%

Viewpoint 8: China's Cross-border E-commerce Retail Import Has Exceeded 100 Billion Yuan

 

Viewpoint 1: Import Trade will Play a More Prominent Role in the New Development Pattern

 

The Report points out that import trade will play a more prominent role in the new development paradigm. In the new development paradigm, we aim to take domestic circulation as the mainstay and that means to make our domestic economy bigger and stronger. We also want to promote the two circulations reinforce each other and that means we should not only make full use of international resources and international market to serve domestic economic development, but also attach great importance to the role of domestic economic development in promoting the development of international market. We attach great importance to actively expand imports in  China's new round of high-level opening-up. Specifically from the perspective of import, whether it is the major domestic circulation or the domestic and international circulations promoting each other, import will play a very important and irreplaceable role, and the role of import will be further highlighted.   

 

The Report points out that import plays an important role in ensuring the safety of domestic industrial chain and supply chain. The more open we become, the more we need to attach importance to safety and balance development and safety. In the future, China will face more headwinds in the external environment, and we must be prepared to deal with a series of new risks and challenges. We will face many risks, including external risks, internal risks, general risks and major risks. The safety of domestic circulation is a major internal risk while the safety of international circulation is a major external risk. With the development of economic globalization, the international division of labor is increasingly refined, which means the division of labor among industries and within industries has already developed into division of labor within products and value chain. Different production processes of products are distributed in different countries and regions, which means  different countries and regions undertake different processes of products, and the production of products is completed by the cooperation of many countries while an individual country or region may own the brand but it is only a part of the whole value chain of products. In this way, , import plays an important role in ensuring the safety of production of some domestic products. Without the import of spare parts and semi-finished products produced by the upstream process, the production of domestic downstream process cannot be carried out normally. Therefore, import is very important in ensuring the safety of domestic industrial chain and supply chain.    

 

The Report points out that the Chinese government attaches great importance to the expansion and cultivation of import channels, and import channels are gradually becoming diversified and platform-based. When it comes to public service platforms, public service platforms such as special websites for import promotion have been established to provide services such as information release, policy introduction, complaints on trade barriers and intellectual property protection for import trade. When it comes to platform construction, in addition to holding CIIE, China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair), China International Fair for Trade in Services (Beijing Fair), We have also cultivated import trade promotion and innovation demonstration zones, built import trade platforms, fostered new forms of trade such as cross-border e-commerce import, established comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce in batches, improved the management model of cross-border e-commerce retail import and import tax policies.      

 

The Report points out we should further magnify the economic impact of actively expanding imports. As early as 2012, the Chinese government proposed to actively expand imports and issued a series of policies and guidelines with the intention of strengthening the role of imports in China's economic development. Actively expanding imports has become a major national development strategy and a major policy for the new round of high-level opening-up. It will connect domestic and foreign markets in a more efficient way and share resources, and promote domestic circular development and high-quality development of the domestic economy by giving full play to the complementary, cost, competitive and high-quality effects of imports.     

 

In general, we should understand the real situation of China's import, tell the story of China's import well, summarize China's import experience, correct the perception of China's import, and give full play to the role of China's import, so that governments at all levels in the world and at home can better understand China's import policies and basic situation about China's import. This will help the active participation of countries around the world in China's imports and the active expansion of imports by domestic governments and enterprises at all levels. Countries around the world can better share the fruits of China's economic development by participating in China's imports, and the local economic development can be better served by domestic governments and enterprises at all levels through active expansion of imports.    

 

Viewpoint 2: China Contributed 27.7% to Global Import Growth

 

The Report points that China contributed 27.7% to global import growth from 2010 to 2020, much higher than that of the US and the EU. China has made great contribution to the global import growth. To be specific, China contributed 11.6% of world import growth from 1950 to 2020, among which 0.6% from 1950 to 1977, 2.3% from 1978 to 1991 and 5.3% from 1992 to 2000. After  China's accession to the WTO, China's contribution to world import growth has greatly increased. To be specific, China has contributed 12.1% from 2001 to 2009 and 27.7% from 2010 to 2020, much higher than 18.3% of the US, 17.1% of the EU, 4.8% if German, 3.3% of Netherlands, 1.8% of South Korea, and 1.8% of UK. In the meantime, the contribution rate of Japan, France and Italy are all negative, which are -2.5%, -1.2% and -2.7 %respectively.   

 

The Report points that, from 2001 to 2020, China's imports of goods grew at an average annual rate of 11.9%, 2.2 times of that of the world and much higher than that of the United States and the European Union. On the whole, the average annual growth rate of China's imports of goods is higher than that of the world's imports in the same period. Specifically, the average annual growth rate of China's imports is 9.8% from 1950 to 1977, while that of the world is 11.4% at the same time. Then, the average annual growth rate of China's imports is 14.6% from 1978 to 1991, about 1.9 times that of the world average, which is 6.9%. Also, the average annual growth rate of China's imports is 13.7% form 1992 to 2000, about 2 times that of the world average, which is 6.9%. Since its accession to the WTO, that is, from 2001 to 2020, China's imports of goods have grown at an average annual rate of 11.9%, about 2.2 times that of the world's imports of goods in the same period (5.5%). Meanwhile, the average annual growth rate of the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, France and the Netherlands is 4.7%, 3.8%, 3.3%, 4.7%, 3.1%, 3.2%, 6.5%, 3.1% and 5.7% respectively, all far lower than China.   

 

 

Viewpoint 3: China is the Largest Export Market for 40 Countries (Regions)

 

The Report points that the share of China's goods imports in the world's total goods imports has significantly increased. In 1950, The share of China's goods imports in the world's total goods imports is only 0.9%. In 1978, it was 0.8%. In 1992, it increased to 2.1%, in 2001 to 3.8%, and in 2020, it reached a record high of 11.5%. From 2001 to 2020, China's share of the world's total imports of goods increased the most compared with that of major countries. To be more specific, compared with 2001, China's share 2020 increased by 7.7 percentage points, while South Korea's increased by 0.4 percentage points. The European Union (-4.6%), the United States (-4.9%), the United Kingdom (-1.8 %), Germany (-1.0%), Italy (-1.3%), Japan (-1.9%) and France (-1.9%) all saw declines. This shows that China, with its super-large market, has become a stabilizer of global trade.     

 

The Report points that China is the largest export market for 40 countries (regions). In 2019, 210 countries (regions) have exported to China. In the 210 countries (regions), China is the largest export market for 40 countries(regions), second largest export market for 25 countries(regions), third largest export market for 16 countries(regions), fourth largest export market for 16 countries(regions), fifth largest market for 8 countries(regions). Overall, China is the top five export market for 105 countries (regions)  

 

The Report points that China has been the world's second largest import market for 12 consecutive years. In 2001, China is the world's sixth largest importer, rising to the third in 2003 and the second in 2009. From 2009 to 2020, China has been the world's second largest import market for 12 consecutive years. In 2001, the world's top 10 importers (regions) are the United States, Germany, Japan, The United Kingdom, France, China, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands and Hong Kong, China. In 2020, the world's top 10 importers (regions) are the United States, China, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Hong Kong, South Korea and Italy. From the ranking of the world's top 10 importers, China is the one that sees the biggest change, rising four places.      

 

 

Viewpoint 4: Since the Outbreak of the Pandemic, China's Imports of Goods Have Been the First to Resume Growth.

 

The Report points out that China is the first country to resume import growth after the outbreak. Thanks to scientific and effective quarantine measures, China brings the COVID-19 outbreak under control in a relatively short period of time and resumes production. As a result, China's import trade recovers faster than other countries. China's imports of goods slow down in the first five months of 2020 due to the impact of the domestic epidemic in terms of the dollar value of imports, but by June, China's imports of goods begin to recover, up 3.29 percent from the same period in 2019. Due to the serious situation abroad, China's import orders have been difficult to fulfill. In July and August, China's import of goods record negative growth again. But, in September, China's import rebound strongly, increasing by 13.47% compared with the same period in 2019, much stronger than market expectations. Since then, Chinese imports have grown every month. In October, November and December, China's import value has increased by 4.8%, 4.6% and 7.6% respectively, compared with the same period of 2019. Compared with the same period in 2020, the monthly growth rate of China's imports of goods from January to September of 2021 has exceeded 15%. Among them, in May, we see the highest growth rate of China's imports of goods, which increases by 51% compared with the same period in 2020. In September of 2021, China's imports of goods increase by 17.6% compared with the same period in 2020. It has registered positive growth for 13 months in a row.        

 

The Report points out that after the outbreak, China's imports stood out compared with other countries and regions. In 2020, India's imports are hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, as are those of South Africa, the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States and Japan. To be specific, in 2020, India, South Africa, Japan and Brazil all see double-digit drops in goods imports, down 23.22%, 21.8%, 11.9% and 10%, respectively.  Britain, Singapore, the European Union, South Korea, the United States and Russia see their imports drop by 8.3%, 8.2%, 7.2%, 7.1%, 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively. China's imports of goods fall by the least, only 0.6%. Since 2021, imports of most countries have resumed the growth trend. From January to July of 2021, China's imports of goods has increased by 34.9% compared with the same period in 2020. Imports of Brazil, Russia, the European Union, The Republic of Korea, the United States and Singapore all have increased by 20%-30%, which are 30%, 29.4%, 28.4%, 26.1%, 23.7%and 20.8%, respectively. The import growth of the United Kingdom and Japan are between 10% and 20%, which are 16.4%and 14.4%, respectively.      

 

The Report points out that China remains the world's second largest importer in the first half of 2021. In the first half of 2021, China's total imports of goods has reached 1.270.45 trillion US dollars, accounting for 12% of the world's total imports of goods in the same period, only second to the United States' 13.1% share of world imports of goods, and much higher than the share of Japan, The Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa.  Each of these countries accounts for less than 4% of world imports of goods.  

 

The Report points out that In 2020, China's imports from the US has gradually recovered and its contribution to US exports remains outstanding. China's imports of goods from the United States rise 11.3% in June from a year earlier as demand for meat and other agricultural products has increased, after falling 13.5% in May 2020. In June 2020, China is the third largest destination for US goods exports, with US goods exports to China totaling $9.242 billion, accounting for 8.8 percent of total US goods exports, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period in 2019. In the first half of 2020, China has imported 56.43 billion US dollars in goods from the US, 4.8 percent lower than the same period in 2019, with an average monthly import of 9.4 billion US dollars.  However, with the orderly resumption of work and production, China has gradually accelerated its imports from the US. In September, China's imports from the US has reached 13.21 billion US dollars. In the first three quarters of 2020, China's imports of goods from the US total  $91.45 billion, up 0.2% from the same period in 2019.  In 2020, China has imported 134.91 billion US dollars of goods from the US, up 9.8% from the same period in 2019, and accounted for 8.7% of the total US exports of goods, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period in 2019. In addition, in 2020, China remains the third largest export destination for the United States, behind Canada and Mexico.     

 

Viewpoint 5: China Has Made Greater Contribution to the Exports of the 64 Countries Along the Belt and Road Through Its Import

 

The Report points out that China's imports from the 64 countries along the Belt and Road have increased. From 2014 to 2020, China's imports from 64 countries along the Belt and Road have increased from 483.442 billion US dollars to 569.906 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 2.78%.  From 2014 to 2016, China's imports from 64 countries along the Belt and Road have showed a downward trend.  Between 2017 and 2019, China's imports from the 64 countries resume growth.   

 

The Report points out that 64 countries along the Belt and Road has become more important in China's import market. Between 2014 and 2020, China's total imports from 64 countries along the Belt and Road has increased from 24.68% to 27.72% of China's total imports.  

 

The Report points out that China has made greater contribution to the total exports of the 64 countries along the Belt and Road. From 2014 to 2020, the proportion of China's imports from the 64 countries along the Belt and Road in the total exports of the 64 countries along the Belt and Road has improved, increasing from 5.96% to 9.23%.   

 

The Report points out that in 2020, the volume of China's imports from the 64 countries along the Belt and Road has decreased, while the contribution of China's imports to the exports of the 64 countries along the Belt and Road has increased. In 2020, China's imports from 64 countries totaled 569.906 billion US dollars, down 1.77% from 2019, and its share in China's total imports dropped to 27.72%. However, in 2020, China's imports from 64 countries account for 9.23 percent of the total exports of the 64 countries, up from 2019, indicating that China's imports are playing an even more important role in the exports of the 64 countries amid the impact of COVID-19.        

 

The Report points out that in the exports of all the 64 countries, China is the largest export market for 13 countries, second largest market for 9 countries, third largest market for 4 countries, fourth largest market for 3 countries and fifth largest market for 4 countries. Among the 64 countries, China is the largest export market for 13 of them, including Iran, Indonesia, Iraq, Kuwait, Mongolia, Myanmar, Oman, the Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Turkmenistan and Yemen.  China is also the second largest export market for 9 countries including Laos, Timor-Leste, Israel, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Ukraine and Vietnam.  

 

The Report points out that In 2019, China has accounted for more than 5% of the exports of 33 countries along the Belt and Road. Among them, China accounts for 20 to 30 percent of the exports of Laos, Iraq, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Timor-Leste. China accounts for more than 30 percent of the exports of Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Yemen, Oman and Iran, among which, China accounts for the largest portion of Turkmenistan's exports, 83.2 percent.     

 

Viewpoint 6: Central and Eastern Europe Countries Has Played a More Important Role in China's Import Market

 

On April 26, 2012, the first China-CEEC Summit was held in Warsaw, Poland, marking the official launch of China-CEEC cooperation. Since the establishment of China-CEEC cooperation mechanism in 2012, especially after General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, we have made significant progress in trade, investment, project contracting, connectivity and other economic and trade fields, forming an all-dimensional, wide-ranging and multi-tiered cooperation. The year 2020 is the Year of China-CEEC Agricultural Diversity Cooperation and China has hosted the Cloud Expo on Featured Agricultural Products of China and Central and Eastern European Countries and other activities. From trade to agricultural cooperation to green development, China and CEECs have sought opportunities amid challenges, explored new models and opened up broad space for cooperation. China-CEEC cooperation has moved up to a next level and is embracing even brighter prospects.    

 

The Report points out that China's imports from Central and Eastern Europe Countries have increased as a whole. From 2001 to 2020, China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries has increased from $633 million to $26.725 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 21.77%. The import in 2020 is 42.21 times that of 2001. Specifically, from 2001 to 2008, China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries has maintained a super-fast growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of 37.21%. From 2009 to 2014, China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries has showed a trend of rapid growth, with an average annual growth rate of 22.23%. In 2015, China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries has showed a decline. But, from 2016 to 2020, China's import from central and Eastern Europe Countries has recovered its growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of 15.67%.      

 

The Report points out that Central and Eastern Europe Countries have played a more important role in China's import market. From 2001 to 2020, except 2004 and 2005, the proportion of China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries in China's total import has been kept rising every year, from 0.26% in 2001 to 1.3% in 2020.  

 

The Report points out that Chinese import has played a more important role in total export of Central and Eastern Europe Countries. From 2001 to 2020, the proportion of China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries in the total export of Central and Eastern Europe Countries has showed a general trend of increase, from 0.33% in 2001 to 1.47% in 2020, the highest in history.  

 

China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries has increased in 2020. In 2020, China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries amounts to $26.725 billion, up 10.88% from 2019, accounting for 1.3% of China's total import. Meanwhile, China's import from Central and Eastern Europe Countries accounts for 1.47% of the total export of Central and Eastern Europe Countries. 

 

Viewpoint 7: The Share of RCEP Countries in China's Total Imports Has Increased to 37.72%

 

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is an agreement made by 15 members, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and ten ASEAN countries. The RCEP is launched by ASEAN in 2012. After eight years of negotiations, especially since 2020, RCEP members has overcame difficulties caused by COVID-19 and successfully signed the agreement during the Fourth ASEAN Leaders' Meeting on November 15^th, 2020. RCEP is the world's largest Free Trade Zone, covering about 30% of the global population, 30% of the global economy and 30% of foreign trade. It has broad prospects and huge potential for development.  

 

The Report points out that China should seize the opportunities brought by RCEP to benefit its trade in goods. First, import tariffs have been significantly reduced. The 15 members have worked to promote liberalization of trade in goods through bilateral offer and more than 90% of the trade in goods will be zero tariff after the agreement is validated. Specifically, the promise to immediately reduce tariff to zero and reduce tariff to zero in ten years will make all the members to fulfill their promise of liberalization of trade in goods in a relatively short time. Second, the “Accumulation of Origin” rule in the RCEP agreement will not only help lower the threshold of tariff preferences, but also greatly promote intra-regional trade cooperation and stabilize and strengthen regional industrial and supply chains. The “Accumulation of Origin” refers to the rule that when a certain country is qualified for producing the products, the original materials the country uses from other RCEP members will be seen as its own original materials. So, it is easier for the final products to meet the set conditions and obtain the origin qualification to enjoy preferential tariffs by combining the regional value components of the original materials.   

 

The Report points out that China's import from RCEP countries has increased on the whole. From 2012 to 2020, China's import from RCEP has increased from 632.808 billion dollars to 775.396 billion dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 2.57%. Specifically, during 2012 to 2013, China's import from RCEP has maintained a growing trend while it sees a relative decline from 2014 to 2016. From 2017 to 2020, China's import from RCEP resumed growth and reached a record high of us $775.396 billion in 2020.    

 

The Report points that RCEP countries has maintained a more important role in China’s import market. From 2012 to 2020, China's import from RCEP has increased from 34.8% to 37.72% in China's total imports.  

 

The Report points that China has played a more important role in the export of RCEP countries. From 2012 to 2020, China's import from RCEP has increased from 17.33% in 2012 to an all-time high of 21.39% in 2020 in total RCEP exports.  

 

In 2020, China's import from RCEP countries has increased. In 2020, China's import from RCEP amounts to $775.396 billion, up 2.18% from 2019, accounting for 37.72% of China's total import. Meanwhile, China's import from RCEP accounts for 21.39% of its total exports.  

 

Viewpoint 8: China's Cross-border E-commerce Retail Import Has Exceeded 100 Billion Yuan

 

The Report points that China's cross-border e-commerce import has enjoyed rapid growth. From 2000 to 2020, although the export transaction scale of cross-border e-commerce has always been larger than the import transaction scale of cross-border e-commerce, the import transaction scale of China's cross-border e-commerce keeps increasing thanks to the upgrading of domestic consumption and the promotion of actively expanding import policies. From 2018 to 2020, the import of cross-border e-commerce has increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan, and the proportion of cross-border e-commerce import in China's total import volume has increased from 13.49% to 19.55%, showing relatively stable growth. In 2020, the import of cross-border e-commerce is 2.8 trillion yuan, up 13.48 percent from 2019.  In the first half of 2021, cross-border e-commerce import transaction has reached 1.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 16.67% of total import.    

 

The Report points out that China's cross-border e-commerce retail import is also on the rise, exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2020. From 2017 to 2020, the total value of cross-border e-commerce retail import has increased from 56.6 billion yuan to 100 billion yuan, and the scale continues to grow. In 2020, China's cross-border e-commerce retail import has exceeded 100 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% compared with 2019.   

 

The Report points out that the number of users of China's cross-border e-commerce import is growing. With the development and improvement of Internet infrastructure, the upgrading of domestic consumption and the continuous improvement of logistics speed, the number of users in this field keeps growing. From 2014 to 2020, the number of users has increased from 15 million to 140 million and the users in 2020 are more than nine times that of 2014. In 2020, it has reached 140 million, up 12% compared with 2019. In the first half of 2021, the number of users is 148 million, and is expected to reach 160 million by the end of 2021.     

 

The Report points out that the growth rate of the number of users shows a process of “rising first and then falling”. From 2014 to 2016, due to the small base, we have enjoyed a fast growth and the growth rate keeps rising. From 2016 to 2020, the number of users has reached to a certain point. Although the overall scale is still growing, the growth rate starts to decline. In 2020, the number of users has increased by 12% year-on-year, reaching the lowest point in history.

 

The Report points out that cross-border e-commerce import has showed two characteristics: the extension of trading products to multiple categories, and the expansion of trading objects to multiple regions. In terms of the types of products , the goods mainly concentrate on milk powder, diapers, health food, cosmetics at the first and then gradually expand to high-end consumer goods, household appliances, etc. At present, it has expanded to outdoor goods, toys and other goods. From the perspective of the regions, China's cross-border e-commerce import has the distinctive characteristics of "multi-market and multi-channel layout", because we start from Japan and South Korea, the UK and the US, Australia at the beginning, and then extend to Germany, France, Canada, Italy, Spain and other countries. Developed countries such as Japan, the United States, South Korea and Europe are the main sources of China's cross-border e-commerce import. In 2020, China's import from Japan, South Korea and other countries has gradually increased through cross-border e-commerce platforms. In 2021, 53.7% of China's cross-border e-commerce users will choose to buy products from Japan and the Republic of Korea, 45.6% from Europe and 42.6% from the United States.  

 

Provided by Department of International Economics and Trade

Edited by Wei Hao

Reviewed by Sun Zhijun